Remembering the Great Tay Flood of January 1993

25 years ago, on 17 January 1993, a peak river flow of 2268 m3/s was recorded at Ballathie gauging station on the River Tay – the highest rate ever recorded in the UK.  At the time, I had only just started work for the National River Flow Archive at the NERC Institute of Hydrology.  The flood left hundreds of people with devastated homes and many lasting impacts: the memory is perhaps best forgotten for many of them.  For me, it was a key moment at the start of a hydrological career in Scotland, and there’s been no lack of interesting projects to investigate since.

Reflecting on the Great Tay Flood, it’s worth taking a moment to think about how much has changed since then.  Many of these changes may be partly attributable to that fateful event in Perthshire: it changed how we thought about flood risk in Scotland at least.  Here are some quick personal reflections:

Climate change was much more of a contentious issue back then – could human agency really be changing the climate?  There was a sense that this was a flood (reckoned to be the biggest in almost 200 years) that shouldn’t have happened: something must have gone wrong to cause such a disaster.  Some looked to climate change as “the reason”.  I remain uncomfortable with the idea of attributing a single large flood solely to climate change, but I think the vast majority of hydrologists would see it as being of critical importance to flood risk assessment in general.  It’s one of the key hydrological challenges for the future.

Sodden house contents after the flood

Flood forecasting and warning were in their infancy then.  Certainly, the hydrologists of the day were using all the information at their disposal; it was clear to them that something very big was about to happen, and that information was shared with the authorities who needed the best information available.  Telemetry monitoring systems, the science behind flood forecasting and the methods of issuing warning messages and preparing recipients have been transformed in the years since – see the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service. and Scottish Flood Forum.  I’m not sure if community resilience had entered many people’s vocabularies back then…?

Washed-out railway embankment at Dalguise in the Tay valley

Perth got its flood defences, completed in 2001, at a cost of £25 million – the most costly scheme in Scotland at the time.  At 8km long, the design allowed for subsequent raising if the need were to arise: a recognition of the uncertainty of risk estimation and the possible effects of climate change.  The defences incorporated more than 80 gates, to address local needs for access, and relying for their operation on the growing capabilities of flood warning.  The scheme provides structural protection for many hundreds of homes and businesses, and a good deal of peace of mind for those at risk.

Perth flood defences under construction, Tay Street

It’s worth thinking about the role played by the flood marks on Smeaton’s Bridge.  The marks showed that 1993 was the highest flood since the bridge was built in the 1770s – excluding the 1814 ‘ice jam’ flood.  And that was an outlier – we don’t get ice jam floods any more: nobody was arguing that we should allow for that scenario in future.  So the historic record provided a context for the flood: it gave some certainty that this flood really was something unprecedented.

Also since 1993, legislation has seen the responsibilities for flood risk management overhauled, most recently in the 2009 Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act, with the roles of local authorities and SEPA (formed in 1996) in particular clarified, extended and better coordinated.

What else has changed or happened? Scottish devolution, the economic downturn of 2008, ubiquitous smartphones!  These are just a few thoughts as we pass this anniversary.  Maybe you’d like to share your thoughts?

Reaching out in NE Fife – drought risk, climate change, agriculture and YOU!

Drought Risk and You – talking about drought, climate change and farming in Freuchie, Saturday 20th January 2018.

Registration link here.

Programme available here: Jan 2018 Eden DRY event v4

Scotland is considered by many as a wet country but over the past years we have seen some prolonged dry periods – for example, 2003 in Tayside, 2008 in the Hebrides and 2010 in SW Scotland. 2017 saw a dry spring in central Scotland.

The DRY project, funded by UK Research Councils, is investigating drought and water scarcity in the Eden catchment alongside 6 other river basins elsewhere around Great Britain. We are collecting digital narratives from local people, while also undertaking experimental crop and grassland research, and computer-based hydrological modelling. We want to discuss with you:

  • What were the impacts of past droughts like 1976 and 1984 in Fife?
  • What could future drought look like in Fife?
  • What might the impacts of future droughts be on agriculture – on food and fodder crops?
  • How might grassland – a common land cover in lawns, golf courses and pasture – be affected?
  • What research is being undertaken in Fife and the UK to investigate these impacts?

Come and join an action-packed morning where we share some of the science that has been generated though the DRY Project. You have the opportunity to share your stories about past, present and future drought impacts and possible adaptations to drought and water scarcity in Fife and Scotland.

At this event, we aim to engage particularly with the agricultural sector and local people. Members of the research team are keen to capture your thoughts on the day in audio/video formats, with a view to sharing your experiences and insights as part of the wider project . Contributors from the DRY project team participating on the day will be:

  • Professor Lindsey McEwen (University of the West of England) – team leader, Drought Risk and You
  • Dr Ivan Grove (Harper Adams University) – Presenting results of crop research experiments at Harper Adams University. Drought experiments have been conducted on Wheat, Barley, Triticale, Durum Wheat, Quinoa,
    Perennial Rye Grass and Lucerne.
  • Dr Andrew Black (Dundee University) – local coordination for Eden (Fife) catchment, leading site visit to “rain-out” (drought simulation) grassland experimental site on the slopes of East Lomond.
  • Members of the digital storytelling team from the School of the Arts, English and Drama at Loughborough University.

To assist with the collection of digital stories, the organisers are interested to arrange opportunities to audio/video record your experiences and insights about drought risk in the Eden catchment. We’ll follow up all registrations with a follow-up email asking (without any obligation) if you would like to make yourself available for this.